16 March 2008

A life time of computers
It seems to be human nature to extrapolate unlikely future scenarios based upon things continuing the way they are at the moment. Take for instance the Terminator films, where technology gets so advanced it starts to think and then turns against humans.

The problem with this type of thinking is the way we see things working today, just doesn't scale like that.

I once thought computers would keep on going, getting better, faster and one day reaching that future dream. But in reality it seems IT has hit a glass ceiling, or at least entered a different era. You can now buy cheap laptops running Windows XP with a wireless internet connection. Then through the internet you can access free software and up to date information about virtually anything.

Where do computers go from here? Speech recognition taking over from a keyboard and mouse, unlikely. PCs getting uber powerful? Most computers have enough power to do everything people need now - so this isn't the singular market force driving innovation.

I've worked in the development of some form of software most of my professional life. The overall trend I can see is putting more of the grunt work on the computer, requiring the developer to do less coding or similar work. This typically means a less efficient piece of software, but we're at the stage were processing power isn't an issue.

So the developer is being more of an architect, rather than a brick layer.

Take for instance Adobe Flash: There are far faster development environments, but with Flash it'll work on any computer and is one of the faster and easier ways to create things.

At the same time we seem to be reaching the limits of the way we interact with computers. Our interface may be more web based now, but most of the developments in the last decade have refined the GUI concept rather than re-written it.

Computers have become a ubiquitous tool used for business and entertainment, but it appears for the immediate future at least, this is the extent of their purpose.

Oh and by the way, I am now President of Mogulville :)

Mav

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